Imboogled

Dy-na-mite!

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 00:59:00 +0000

What. On. Earth. The Google devs seem to be on some kind of go-faster crack right now. Yesterday they decided to get creative and greet users with pointer sensitive multi-coloured blobs using dynamic CSS3... but only US and European users. People from the remaining 5 continents (yes remaining five) were greeted with the regular logo.

Google's official statement says merely that "today's doodle is fast, fun and interactive, just the way we think search should be".

Adding to the wonderfully hyped-up geek fuelled mystery, the company also tweeted on Twitter, "Boisterous doodle today. Maybe it's excited about the week ahead..."

The following day, it was replaced by a similarly dynamic greyscale Google that filled with colour at each key stroke, letter by shining letter. Aww. They reported, "doodle is dressing up in its brightest colours for something exciting coming very soon".

There was some wild speculation on what this could all possibly mean... Google's September birthday maybe? Or the arrival of HTML5 (even though it was coded in CSS3). Only on the second day did word leak out that it was all to do with Google's new dynamic search feature.

What? Dynamic search? Chrome=Pokeball? Yes. Google have created a mechanism whereby instead of searching once for a term, you are now searching on the input of every single letter. Apparently all this to reduce search times, however slower connections will struggle, and the behemoth's search traffic will most likely sky-rocket, nicely congesting an already busy super highway. I could have however, swallowed all of this, if it wasn't for the fact that Google made this a default option today, forcing users to trial this new technology. Google. Dynamic. Sigh.

Yawn!

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 00:42:00 +0000

2 AM and the UnifiedBlue relaunch is officially complete. The unified wiki originally at the main domain has now been split into subdomains between secure and public content and the wiki software has been changed to Dokuwiki. The wiki-blog entries have now been deprecated and have been manually been moved to Imboogled. The mailserver has been officially launched, and work will shortly begin to move content and subscriptions. Finally the main domain now hosts a gateway page linking to the two wikis, the mail server and the server subdomains.... Phew!

The decision was taken to move from Mediawiki not because it was not proficient enough, but simply that it was not fit for purpose. It was almost too powerful for the limited use the UB requires, and also lacked innate security features that the secure wiki required. As mentioned previously, an OpenID token authentication method was active for the secure wiki previously, however it's integration to Mediawiki was limited, and showed signs of possible security flaws. The new site features secure basic https authentication provided by Apache as a first line and then a subsequent wiki user/pass combination to access content.

The deprecation of wiki-blogs was simple; Mediawiki or Dokuwiki for that matter, have no business hosting blog entries and are not built as such. It was fitting that they should move to the Imboogled blog.

It was an epic move, but one that will help shape the future of UnifiedBlue.

Pokoogle?

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 00:23:00 +0000

Just a quick one Imbooglers. Take a look at this... but sit down first:

Google Chrome Logo + Pokeball = Pokoogle?

Drop It!

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Sun, 05 Sep 2010 11:16:00 +0000

After some serious musing over various CentOS server backup alternatives, I finally settled on the cloud for my modus primo. Obviously the server company could have provided either a secondary HDD or a network share to which I could have SFTP'd out, and I could have also gone third party and used SFTP with them... or even stored just critical data locally... but these options were all limited or costly.

Dropbox is a service I've been using for personal backup for some time, it's a free cloud based system, running from Amazon's S3 backend. It provides 2GB initial data offering, expandable on subscription to 100GB. OK, so it does cost in the upper storage bands, but to me $99 for a year of 100GB cloud storage isn't bad at all. I'm also thinking for people wanting to go above 100GB that Dropbox would happy oblige on a prorated basis.

I used both the headless Tips and Tricks page on the Dropbox Wiki and multiple forum entries to finally arrive at the solution.

My first step was to get the Dropbox client. Dropbox release a stable client on their website and a semi-stable client on their forums. I would recommend the latter; cloud technology is constantly evolving and Dropbox seem to fairly stable semi-stable releases... if that makes sense!

After downloading with wget and extracting to home, I started the process with:

~/.dropbox-dist/dropboxd &

As soon as I had done this, the CLI issued me with a verification link, which I could then paste into a local browser either to setup a DB account or link an existing one. When the program detected that this link had been made, it completed execution and returned me to a prompt. Dropbox was running!

You'll see forum posts and web references to the official Dropbox CLI, which allows for starting/stopping etc. This is a useful script, however requires a very much updated version of Python. This was messy, as I had 2.43 already installed, and built parallel version of 7 in order to execute the script. Once both Python's are installed, you can prefix scripts with python (instead of just running them natively) to allow the higher version to be used. As certain system processes are built around Python, removing 2.43 would require other modules such as Yum to be recompiled as well. It would get very messy. I would actually suggest that you forgo this "official CLI" because in reality you will rarely use it, and the cost is not worth the gain.

So the next step was to manually edit some of the Dropbox settings. Without a GUI, the sqlite3 database has to be manually edited. First off stop Dropbox. If you haven't got your script working as above, then just kill the process.

Switch into your /home/user/.dropbox folder and run sqlite3 dropbox.db or... for newer releases such as mine, sqlite config.db.

The database interface will then load and you are ready to tweak some settings! These first two will allow you to remove the upload/download cap. If you are running on a server then you should definitely do this and take full advantage of your backbone. The third option stops Dropbox broadcasting locally looking for other Dropbox instances to P2P with. This is really important in a server environment, because your server company may see any local broadcasting, especially P2P broadcasting, as dangerous or consumptive. There are both new and old SQL statements below as Dropbox have usefully changed their DB structures between releases. If you have a config.db, then use the new statements, else use the old ones!

Old:

insert into config (key, value) values ('max_upload_kBs', 'RjAKLg==');
insert into config (key, value) values ('max_download_kBs', 'RjAKLg==');
insert into config (key, value) values ('p2p_enabled',0);

New:

delete from config where key='throttle_download_style';
delete from config where key='throttle_upload_style';
INSERT INTO "config" VALUES('throttle_download_style',0);
INSERT INTO "config" VALUES('throttle_upload_style',0);
insert into config (key, value) values ('p2p_enabled',0);

Then just quit and save with .quit. You can use the same process to move the Dropbox storage folder. There are scripts for this, however I found them to be outdated and resulted in corruption. By issuing the following commands as above you can change the location:

delete from config where key='dropbox_path';
INSERT INTO "config" VALUES('dropbox_path','/home/ufblue/Dropbox');

Your final step is to get Dropbox to start at startup and run as a sytem process. If you do this, the CLI script will become redundant because you'll be able to use the service dropbox command to either stop, start or restart the service.

For the service script, I used the script available on the Tips and Tricks page. You should be able to find your distrib there. I used the Fedora/Red Hat script and it worked just fine. It's really important to set the users file correctly if you are using symbolic or soft links, as permissions issues can occur. Dropbox looks at parent directory permissions rather than specific file permissions, so you can work around it that way, but for recursive permission liberated structures, you'll have to run the DB client as root. I'm really not sure of the ramifications of this, and can only entertain that the Dropbox company could potentially exploit this at worst.

If security is a concern, there are always the options of using TrueCrypt or encFS and then Dropboxing the encrypted volume in it's entirety. I can see why this is an attractive option, because you are still risking unencrypted data to both Dropbox and ultimately Amazon's S3 service.

The possibilities are then fairly limitless. Remember the you can use softlinks to link files into your Dropbox directory system wide, and these will then be included in the backup. Remember that Dropbox contains a 30 day revision history, so every time a file is changed, it's revision is stored. This got me to consider the possibility of Dropbox watching an active mySQL database. I'm not sure how this would work however and even if the files would be locked? There is no data about this on the net right now so it might be worth experimenting.

Consider the additional server based possibilities though, from torrents, to email stores, to databases, to VM instances... even more if you are running a local client and then you have a smooth replacement for SFTP or WebDAV... the options are limitless, and would provide an outstanding interface for any client. It's only a matter of time before we see more server-side application of this, but beware that although this will bring ease of use, it will also bring with it cost as people start to recognize it's value. DB is already more than Googleworthy, and I am sure they've been approached, but I guess for now they are holding out for their own reasons... for now.

Dropbox on their part are doing a stellar job at promoting the various uses, and don't seem to mind any of it's applications. There is even a DB client for smartphones now, enabling you to literally sync on the go. To me, effective cloud storage application is an important a milestone as VM. Your store of information is now truly dynamic, truly transversal. Information has ascended.

Reliably Tech

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 00:18:00 +0000

Laptop reliability, or tech reliability for that matter is hard to measure. How do we really know if a laptop purchased from Dell will last longer than HP for example? We all theorise of course, based on different indicators... these including reviews from users, blogging, word of month, salespeople and of course personal experience... but this really isn't empirical data at all, and often the assumptions we make are flawed.

Interestingly, SquareTrade released statistical data today regarding just this. The data is based on the failure rates of leading laptop brands, and ranked on warranty claims in the first year. SquareTrade generally appeals to eBay buyers, who are given the opportunity to purchase a warranty after an eBay purchase. I need to add at this stage that this data is, in its own way, flawed. Its based on the premise of the majority of purchases being eBay based, rather than market purchased... and it also does not list all manufacturers, just a random cross section from someone at ST who obviously thought would be interesting.

Its also flawed by user type in the fact that different users purchase different tech. Could it be for example that Toshiba came out on top because the people that choose to purchase Toshiba are more technically aware or more careful? Could it be that HP is the first call for a great deal of tech first-timers, aiding their poor score?

So the message is simple, take it with a pinch of salt but it still makes for interesting reading... when the unquantifiable becomes empiric it is always interesting.

Corruption on the Bay

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 23:16:00 +0000

I should start with the caveat that I am not generally a moaner. Working in both corporate America and corporate Europe, I understand the challenges large businesses face to become leaner, meaner, more cost effective and more resilient. Understanding these challenges gives me a unusual insight into why companies take actions which often seem, to the end consumer, heartless, rash, reactionary or just plain old senseless.

eBay however has forced me to break the rules. Over the last couple of months in the UK, eBay has been making changes to the way in which sellers can charge postage fees. Since last year, eBay has imposed maximum postage charges in categories, and the business logic behind this is just about tolerable.

It goes back to sellers abusing the postage system. For many years, across both the Americas and Europe, sellers have been “cheating the system” by charging say $0.99 for the item and $18.99 for postage. The net result? Two fold. Firstly, the seller does not have to pay final value fees on the $18.99 because it is technically postage, and secondly in the event of a refund for an unwanted item (in which postage is non-refundable), the buyer would simply receive their $0.99 back.

So eBay clearly thought long and hard about this one and came up with the detailed seller rating system. This is a great system, which allows for a more detailed feedback on the seller, in terms of speed of postage, cost of postage, item description etc. Each of these categories can be marked out of 5 stars. eBay's plan for this was simple... they would penalize sellers who had a poor postage cost rating by limiting them in one way or another, for example using maximum postage restrictions.

For some reason, this either never took off, or took off for a very short amount of time because before sellers knew what had hit them, this logic had been applied seller-wide... and postage restrictions had been imposed. It was a bad deal for sellers, simply for the fact that sometimes, on some items, postage just costs more.

So eBay reverted from an idea which would have allowed sellers to moderate themselves, via the rating of buyers, to a system which in effect penalized everyone. Still at this stage I did not blog. I could understand eBay's reasoning for doing this, the smart business logic (in being able to charge more of a FVF) and the possible legal avenues opening of discrimination based on a sellers feedback... I could just about understand.

Then it happened. Earlier this year some categories started imposing zero postage fees allowed. This is a complete scandal, and I'm not even sure it is legal. The books category for example has just been zero rated. This means that you must offer free postage, and build the postage into your item value. The net result is a vast amount more money for eBay in final value fees, as the item is now 100% chargeable. It truly is an unashamedly greedy ploy.

For sellers, this means increased fees, and an untrue reflection of an items value. If the whole item cost is built in, postage costs become opaque. As a seller I pride myself on being able to quote accurate postage, and guaranteeing on the auction that they will only pay for the postage plus a very small surcharge in packaging. I guarantee that if it costs me any less to post that I will refund the extra. That avenue is now closed.

For such a pioneering company like eBay to do something like this is bad for everyone. It's bad for the buyers, for the sellers, for the economies in which eBay operates, and for the Internet as a whole. Just because eBay does have a markable monopoly on online auctions, they have clearly become a law unto themselves... and when any company does this it represents the very worst of human nature, that of greed.

Reply to the Congressman

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 18:52:00 +0000

Today I replied to Congressman Murphy's response I blogged about last month on net neutrality. I thought it was important in my own words to let the Congressman know my thoughts on net neutrality and the importance of the issue:

Dear Congressman,

Thank you for your email. I do understand your position on net neutrality, but I cannot agree with you. Free access to the Internet is something which must be protected at all cost, and the issue of providers charging for regulated access to the Internet is something which we must protect against, even if the plans and proposals are not immanent.

Your concern that net neutrality would limit customer choices is simply unfounded. Net neutrality would mean that a class based system would exist on the Internet, with the better system being available to those that could afford it. In essence, it would completely restructure the Internet as we know it, in what I believe to be a very commercial way, one that is ultimately bad for the consumer.

My concern is also that big networks and businesses are behind this with vast amounts of money, and I would hope that you could remain independent from this, and consider this issue from that of the consumer and the provider (who are of course often your constituents too).

The Internet and America use similar models. The Internet rewards individuals for their creativity and their independent thought. It does not judge individuals on their classes or beliefs, or who they are "subscribed" to, and more importantly the Internet is a place of free thinking and the sharing of information and ideas. It is truly is so much to so many people. As such I urge you to consider your opinion on net neutrality and ask you to join me in our fight to protect it, as you would fight to protect the values and foundations of this great country.

Yours faithfully,

Luke O'Connell

Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: My Mobile Internet Index (Final)

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 08:16:00 +0000

Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: My Mobile Internet Index (Final)

Scott Rutt

08/11/09 - 06:46 PM EDT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- "When you get across the board weakness like today, use the opportunity to buy into the themes that are working," Jim Cramer told the viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Tuesday.

He said today's decline in the market was a gift, and investors need to use the dip to buy into what he calls the "Mobile Internet Tsunami," a multi-year trend that could be as big as the personal computer and Internet revolutions.

Cramer unveiled his new "Mobile Internet Index," a group of 21 stocks that encompasses what he considers the best when it comes to what's needed to make the mobile Internet a reality. Cramer said this index will use today's closing prices, and start at a value of 100, to tracks the performance of these great companies.

Some of the notable stocks in the index include Google (GOOG Quote), the leader in the Web space, along with device makers Apple (AAPL Quote) and Research In Motion (RIMM Quote).

Cramer said the index also needs the component makers, such as Starent Networks (STAR Quote) and backbone providers like Cisco (CSCO Quote), a stock which Cramer owns for his charitable trust, Action Alerts PLUS, and its smaller speculative rivals Ciena (CIEN Quote) and Tellabs (TLAB Quote).

Cramer's index also included companies providing text messaging services, Tekelec (TKLC Quote), and antenna specialists like CommScope (CTV Quote). Finally, Cramer said there will be a need for more storage, and that means Sandisk (SNDK Quote).

Cramer said his Mobile Internet Index is the place to be, especially on weak days like today.

The remainder of the stocks in the index include: Palm (PALM Quote); ADC Telecom (ADCT Quote); Qualcomm (QCOM Quote), which is in his charitable trust; Broadcom (BRCM Quote); NetLogic (NETL Quote); Xilinx (XLNX Quote); Skyworks Solutions (SWKS Quote) RF Micro Devices (RFMD Quote); ON Semiconductor (ONNN Quote); Cypress Semiconductor (CY Quote); and Tessera Technologies (TSRA Quote).

Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: July 1

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 22:29:00 +0000

Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: July 1

TheStreet.com Staff

07/01/09 - 07:01 PM EDT

On Wednesday's "Mad Money" TV show, Jim Cramer continued filling viewers in on the methods of his madness -- all the little tricks and tools he uses to pick stocks, to know when to buy and sell, and generally to be a great investor.

He started off by giving people a "rainy day" tip for when the market is having a really bad, down day. "What you need to be looking for after a down day is buying opportunities," Cramer said. "There is no better opportunity to buy than when you find a stock that's been upgraded by some analyst on a down day."

Usually when a stock gets upgraded, it jumps higher immediately, he said. But not when that upgrade comes out on a bad day for the market. "On those days, a stock that gets upgraded isn't going higher. In fact, there's a good chance it will go lower depending on how awful the action is," Cramer said.

"And there is your opportunity -- the day after the selloff, when things have calmed down and are less negative," he said.

Another method to his madness, Cramer said, has to do with how he determines if an individual stock is truly undervalued. "People like to throw around terms like over- or undervalued," but Cramer said he has his own rule of thumb for figuring it out.

"If a stock has a price-to-earnings multiple -- remember E (the earnings) times M (the multiple) equals P (the price) -- that's lower than its growth rate, then that stock is cheap," Cramer said.

"If a company has 10% growth but trades at eight times earnings, this rule says it's cheap. If it has 10% growth and trades at 10 times earnings, it's still dirt cheap."

However, a stock with 10% growth and a 20 multiple is a stock that market players should take profits in, he said. Any stock with a multiple that's more than twice its growth rate is too expensive.

At the same time, Cramer warned viewers that like any of his methods, this one is a rough approximation. "It's useful, but it's not always right," he said. "A lot of times a stock will get cheap, based on its earnings estimates, because those estimates need to be cut."

"Plenty of inexpensive-looking stocks are actually quite pricey if the fundamentals are declining, and the earnings are going to miss the estimates," Cramer explained.

"It's the same at the top of the price range, but less dangerous: A stock that's trading with a multiple that's twice its growth rate looks expensive, but if its earnings need to be revised higher, its multiple will come down, and it has more room to run," he said.

While the market is "too dynamic" for there to be any hard and fast rules to define how the growth affects a stock's price, there are some important points that come out of the connection, he continued. "The most important is that stocks with accelerating growth, be it sales growth or earnings growth, are worth more than stocks with decelerating growth."

Sell on Slowing Growth

Wall Street doesn't like decelerating growth, and growth funds tend to lighten up their positions when they see growth decelerating. "When you see the growth start to slow, you should sell," Cramer said.

"Even if you think the stock goes higher after the decline brought about by the deceleration, you should still sell beforehand and buy back shares later to sidestep the pain," he said.

The next method Cramer talked about was buying with "wide scales" on the way down. This method, he explained, is what he used at his hedge fund to buy declining stocks that he thought were nearing their bottoms.

Because it's "nearly impossible" to call an actual bottom in an individual stock, "the smart move is to buy incrementally on the way down," Cramer said.

With wide scales, people buy larger and larger positions as the stock goes lower, and "when it's so low you can hardly believe how poorly the stock is trading, you double down," he said.

But, he said, "be sure to leave yourself room, because when the stock bottoms, you're going to want to pour your money in."

While it's nearly impossible to call an actual bottom in a stock, there are signs that can help people know when the time is right to really "bulk up" a position, Cramer said.

Doubling Down

First, most, if not all, of the analysts who follow the stock have to downgrade it to sell, even though it's already been through a "sickening" decline.

Also, when a company gets hit with bad news or a negative rumor and the stock doesn't actually go down, it's a great sign that the stock has bottomed and that it's time to double down, he added.

Plus, significant insider buying after a huge decline is a "sure sign" that people should buy more.

At the same time, Cramer warned viewers that these things are difficult to bet on and that they don't always happen at the bottom. "That's why my best advice is still that you shouldn't try to call bottoms in individual stocks," he said.

"Instead just use wide scales as the stock falls, buying in larger and larger increments as the stock declines," he said.

Furthermore, Cramer urged viewers to look for broken stocks, not broken companies. "When we get hit with a decline of sufficient magnitude, almost everything gets knocked down, every stock gets punished," he said. "But not every stock deserves the beating."

People tend to assume that when a stock gets knocked down, the company deserves it, but this is wrong. "Plenty of great companies are unfairly sold off by investors who simply don't get it," Cramer said.

This is why investors must do their homework, he stressed. "It's not hard to tell the difference between a damaged stock and damaged goods if you've listened to the conference calls and read all the findings."

Suppose "the market is getting hammered and Cramer's nowhere to be seen," he said. At this time, the "discipline" or method that will let people take advantage of all the stocks that the market's breaking in spite of the fact that they belong to great companies is "the shopping list."

"While the selloff is happening, you put together a shopping list of stocks you like that are going down," Cramer said. "These are the stocks you've done the homework on and know belong to strong companies."

Keep an eye on these stocks as they decline, he advised. But "don't look for the biggest decliners and assume they're the cheapest and that they should be bought," Cramer said. "Most of those companies are damaged goods, and you don't want to waste your time."

In addition, don't put alleged "blue chip" names on the shopping list under the assumption that they couldn't possibly be broken companies, he pleaded. "There's no such thing as a blue chip," Cramer said.

Once people have done their homework on the stocks, differentiating between the broken stocks and the broken companies, and feel the bottom is close, "that's when you start putting on your positions in your unbroken shopping list names," he said.

Finally, "always try to sell into strength," Cramer said, but not all at once. "Sell part of your position now, but wait for some strength before you unload the rest," he said.

However, if the wait is too long and either there's no strength or you have evidence the stock will only go lower, then you can sell.

Check out the latest edition of "Cramer's Take on Top-Searched Stocks" on Stockpickr.

Want more Cramer? Check out Jim's rules and commandments for investing from his latest book by clicking here.

For more of Cramer's insights during the Lightning Round, click here.

Reply from Congressman Murphy

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 18:48:00 +0000

Today I received a response from Congressman Murphy on the issue of net neutrality. This was in response to my asking him to support it.

Dear Mr. O'Connell,

Thank you for writing my office about net neutrality. I appreciate being able to address your concerns.

The issue of net neutrality is an ongoing issue under review in the Energy and Commerce Committee, on which I serve. Though there is no single definition, the term "net neutrality" is used in reference to the practice of a network provider controlling a subscriber's access to Internet-based content. Supporters of "net neutrality" legislation argue that Congressional action is needed to prevent Internet service providers from building a multi-tier Internet. Under a multi-tier Internet, providers would bill users based on their consumption of bandwidth or limit unfettered access to content located outside the internal infrastructure. Net neutrality proponents worry that network providers will begin to favor content located on their internal network and restrict access to content located elsewhere.

Essentially, net neutrality legislation would allow the government to regulate access to the Internet. At this time, I see no impending threat to the Internet that requires legislation to protect access.

I remain concerned that "net neutrality" would actually limit consumer choices down the road by deterring innovation and other communications technology advances. The U.S. has enjoyed rapid expansion in high-speed Internet service and broadband applications in recent years, largely due to a balanced approach to Internet regulation.

Please do not hesitate to contact me with further questions or concerns. If you are interested in receiving my email newsletter describing important votes and key committee activity, I invite you to visit my website at http://murphy.house.gov and sign up.

Sincerely,

Tim Murphy
Member of Congress

Deliver us from New Media

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 23:49:00 +0000

I just took the time out to watch the documentary "Deliver us from Evil" at the request of a close friend in order to "see where I stood". First off, I hate the all-too-frequent plight of new media to scaldalise the church... or in fact to scaldalise anything they can get their hands on.

I'm not going to play some sort of defense here... because all the way up to those Bishops there was simply a cover up on a grand scale. A real detachment of the wards of the parishes those Bishops were ordained to protect, a real failure on so many levels.

I would say though that this is one case... sure there are others, but I guess I object to the way the documentary tries to make it out to be the common practice of the church. I'm not saying that it hasn't happened, or that it hasn't happened more than once, but there is a real jump from "has occurred in the past" to "commonplace". Also, I think the showing of O'Grady's interview at all was completely pointless; the guy is obviously out of his mind. I don't think he was out of his mind at the time, because he would perhaps not have passed as such a social person, but all the same this current testimony seems to be nothing more than the ramblings of a crazy person who truly believes that just by talking to his victims will allow him and them to move on.

The worst part of the documentary was seeing the abuse victims. There is just something so crushing, so abhorrent about the damage done to abuse victims that... I don't know... takes me far away from any type of religious thinking. Fill in the blanks here!

Anywho, must go, meeting early tomorrow. I'll get off my soap box now.

Not so Citizens Internet

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 23:31:00 +0000

Grrr... I'm struggling with Citizens Internet PA at the moment (wpa.net). Citizens are a small provider here in PA who among other services now offer fiber-optic internet. Interestingly, the connection is not actually that fast, certainly not to warrant fiber status, but its the service that I really need to focus on.

I've been having problems since last night (Friday) when sites would not resolve properly. After switching out to OpenDNS, checking InternetPulse.com, running through a local proxy and the problem still persisting, I guessed it had to be a router their end so this morning gave them a call.

When I called their out of hours service line I was informed that OOH service was available Mon-Fri something AM to about 10PM and Saturday 10AM to 6PM. All I needed to do was leave a message... great!

Not so great. Two messages and five hours later, with the 6PM deadline fast approaching I had still not received a reply. Small companies need to realise that service is the most important service they have to offer which should set them apart from the big boys. I guess Citizens needs to take note here.

It was also the first time I had checked their website. Seemingly unchanged since 2002, this whole company seems to be based on word of mouth and yellow pages referral. The site is buggy, outdated, misinformed and more importantly, was reporting a generic OK! network status. I would love to get my hands on that website, get them setup with a forum maybe, a proper network status, up to the minute Internet health checks, FAQ bases, support systems etc... even online chat maybe?

Frustrating to say the least. I wonder if I'll have to wait until Monday morning before I can get service now? We will see! Citizens Internet... only for select Citizens within business hours.

Update 7/12/09 - 2:40PM: As expected, the problem is still persisting this morning. Last night I found the fiber box attached to the side of the house, opened it up and checked all the connections... but everything looked good. Today I was able to get around it by installing a wireless router at a neighbours house (nice guy!) and the signal *just* reached. It only reaches my office, but that's good enough. I have cable. Next week I'm thinking I'll switch to Verizon FiOS... maybe they will be manned over the weekend?

Update 7/13/09 - 9:50AM: So I guess the Internet started working properly again last night, with all sites resolving as normal. I called and spoke to Brendan this morning at Citizens Internet customer service. It turns out that they do not "really have anyone in charge of Internet services", so I relayed my concerns about no weekend service through him. He said that the account would be credited a couple of days service, which is fantastic considering I did not have service for that time... it was more insulting than anything else, a whole months refund may have saved them... but not that. I'll be looking for a new carrier as soon as possible.

Netbooking on the NC10

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 16:57:00 +0000

I decided that the best way to test the NC10 from Samsung would be to blog about it, saving throughout the day as I went along... kind of taking it with me.

First impressions were pretty good; as can be expected from Samsung. They are anything but sloppy when it comes to design, and like Apple and Sony, use their design as a kind of trademark. I'm not saying that the most important aspect of a great netbook is design or aesthetics... but usability and great design often go hand in hand so it was a good start. In addition, netbooks can often have a toy-like feel and appearance. Samsung pulls away from this slightly in build quality, but the blue version I picked up did not help.

The next big deal for me was the keyboard. I've always believed that system input is underestimated, but especially for the purpose of netbooking, a usable, scalable keyboard was a real must; on this the NC10 really delivered. At 93% the keyboard is almost full size and this really pays off... primarily because with little adjustment I can touch-type as I would do on a full kb.

The mouse-pad on the NC10 leaves a lot to be desired. The issues seem to be reflected by the user community, in that the pad is unresponsive (even more so in outside of Windows).

The other harsh comparison is between the netbook and any full size notebook. Prior to the netbook I had been using a Dell 14.4 notebook, and the difference was just a little too much to handle. Switching between the two is not a great idea, because it makes the netbooks feel "toy like".

I guess you just have to remind yourself that you are dealing with a different piece of technology here; that its like comparing a noteboook to a cell phone. Just not possible. That helps. For me it was important to remember that the netbook came in at 2.8lbs versus the my notebooks 5.39lbs, not to mention the bulkiness.

I guess the real question comes down to usage and portability. The questions I need to consider are:

1) How will I be transporting the netbook? Will I be using vehicles mainly for transport, in which case the weight would be a little irrelevant, or will I be using a great deal of public transport in which case weight is everything to play for?

2) When I arrive at my destination, how will I be using it? As a system all day on a desk, which again means that a larger size will be better for stability and day-long operation, or will I be taking it into lectures and perching it to take notes... in which case again size is everything to play for.

I decided not to go too much into performance simply because netbooks are much of a muchness. They share the same specs and often the same hardware, so trying to compare them is a little rendant.

Price was an important question for me when I went into the netbook market, and I was please to note that the NC10 would set me back just $380, when my Dell notebook had been around $900. This might seem like a worthless reference, but the feeling that you are carrying less money around is important, it avoids over protection and extreme worrying about loss/theft.

...tbc

The Height of Security

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 10:53:00 +0000

Over the last year or so, I've been battling with a way of properly securing my wiki. I've gone through a vast array of cunning systems designed to even stop me from accessing my own system.

The first method was a code book; a simple one but effective and offering physical protection, this method is achieved by simply choosing a new chapter from any given book each month, taking the first however many chars you would like and selecting the first letter or the last letter or a combination to form a password. This method is pretty secure but does require a book (or I suppose an electronic version).

The second was a password map. This is the age old method of creating a A = r , B = p method using symbols and case matching to achieve a secure password. Then you just need to generate a plain text word (such as the month name, lunar cycle etc) and then convert it using the map. Again effective because it requires 2 stage authentication (access to the map and knowing the key word).

Both these methods are very physical. They work, but require either the book, or the map and to remember the chapter and the key word respectively. In essence, not ergonomic to the user, in the brain-workout department!

Many services in the US now use physical token authentication. I've seen services similar in the UK, but only for higher security apps. Physical token uses a simple device, shaped like a usb key or card in some cases. These devices generate seemingly random codes to use at authentication point along with a a password. The devices do not communicate, but rather hold a complex mathematical calculation to generate the code based on date, which the authenticating system also holds.

So far I've seen variations of this used by eBay/PayPal and brokerage services in the States, along with my bank in the UK. The UK version is calculator size and requires you to enter a challenge code before the auth code is released, increasing the level off security even more so.

So I've been dreaming of using this with my wiki for some time. MediaWiki is fairly extensible and I've known there was an addon that should support token authentication. You can of course go through the rigmarole of setting up your own authentication service, but this requires server software installed on a non-Linux client and then a PAM authenticator installed on the local server. Its a little long winded and resource hungry but is secure.

The other method is achieved by using a proxy service like Verisign's PIP. This allows tokens to be linked to the OpenID system (kind of a universal username and password). By using this system I was able to link the Wiki in with OpenID which in turn linked to the token.

The best part about this was that I was able to use my PayPal key and register it with PIP, saving me the time and cost of an additional token. This cross linking is now always possible, but I imagine that in the future it will be.

So all in all a very successful project, as my Wiki is now protected by secure token authentication. The only slight issue I have is the "forgot your token?" link which allows a one-time access code to be sent via email. This seems a little redundant to me, and dangerous if you are in the habit (as many of us are) of leaving yourself signed in. All in all though, pretty darn secure.

European Parliamentary Elections 09

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Sat, 30 May 2009 16:39:00 +0000

I feel a need to somehow explain myself! I'm not usually one to go public with my electoral preferences, but this time I just had to... if only to affirm my own logic.

There were two halves to the line up this time around. The first was the previous track record of the parties involved. I've heard some people talk quite vehemently on separating national from European politics, but I just cannot. A party must be held to the same level of accountability regardless of the process for which it is involved with.

The second of course are the manifestos of the parties, and the beliefs and commitments that they will be taking to the European parliament.

The combination of these two factors was unfortunately for me, incompatible. Labour offered me most compatibility with the messages they would be taking to Europe, however I simply cannot bring myself to vote Labour, however like-minded they may be.

The choices were then whittled down to the Liberal Democrats and Libertas. Libertas was most compatible, but their inception brings them into question as a viable candidate. Libertas successfully campaigned in Ireland for the rejection of the Treaty of Lisbon which could be considered a major setback in the future of the EU.

I'm not too worried either way with the treaty. As far as I can gather, it seeks to decentralise power in granting smaller states seats more proportionately. This would have to be seen as a good thing, even if it did take power away from the UK MEPs.

My main concern is that they are a single issue party, and will be unable to break away from this one victory. They still lack a position on some pretty major issues such as the support of the single European currency. Additionally I am uncertain as to how much investment they have in key issues such as national referenda and business issues.

On that basis I'm pulled from Libertas until they can prove themselves as a viable policy driven party... which leaves the Liberal Democrats.

On the surface they seem the ideal choice, but for one caveat... their support of a referendum on EU membership. In the UK this could be seriously damaging. The UK being an insular and independent country at its core, would make a membership vote a close call. It is my strong belief that we need to command an integral position within the EU and that both Europe and the UK are recepriocally stronger for the partnership.

As you can imagine, it made voting exceptionally difficult and the final point made me revisit my Labour and Liberatas choices more closely. In the end, it became clear in the fact that the European arm Lib Dems could not command a referendum and therefore the potential for damage is limited. I am afraid however that this issue will rear its head again for the general elections.

To aid my decision making I used two interactive sources along with regular research; firstly Vote Match Europe, which compiles a compatibility list (see below) of your views alongside the various parties. I also used The Political Compass site to determine my position on the political spectrum. It should be noted that these are general guides, and should not be treated as a primary method of voting... they should be used alongside specific party and candidate research.

The political compass information below shows my affinity to the liberal right (just), which puts me more in line with the Lib Dem way of thinking.

This provided a general template, however it should also be remembered that Liberatas are not featured on the compass. I believe they would sit closely to the Lib Dems, especially in the light of the Vote Match response which was as follows:

Results:

Party	Match
Labour Party	48/64
Liberal Democrats	44/64
Libertas	42/64
Green Party	40/64
Conservative Party	29/64
UK Independence Party	23/64

Compare your responses:

Statement		You	Labour Party	Liberal Democrats	Libertas	Green Party	Conservative Party
1	The EU should prohibit national governments from imposing a mandatory retirement age on workers.	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Agree	Agree
2	EU subsidies on agricultural production should be focused on small scale, non-intensive methods.	Open	Open	Agree	Agree	Agree	Agree
3	The EU should significantly reduce the amount it spends on agricultural production subsidies.	Open	Open	Agree	Agree	Agree	Agree
4	Medical experiments on animals should be banned across the EU.	Agree	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Agree	Disagree
5	The UK is more prosperous as a result of membership of the EU.	Agree	Agree	Agree	Agree	Open	Agree
6	The UK should hold a referendum on whether it should remain a member of the European Union. (Important)	Disagree	Disagree	Agree	Disagree	Open	Disagree
7	All future EU Treaties should be subject to a referendum in the UK. (Important)	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Agree	Agree	Agree
8	The EU should stop internet service providers from limiting their customers' access to websites and applications for commercial reasons. (Important)	Agree	Disagree	Open	Agree	Agree	Open
9	The EU should not introduce new employment and business regulation for the duration of the recession.	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Agree	Disagree	Open
10	The European Union poses a threat to individual national cultures. (Unimportant)	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Open	Disagree
11	In a recession, national governments should have the freedom to subsidise their own businesses.	Agree	Open	Disagree	Open	Agree	Disagree
12	All EU citizens should be free to work anywhere in the EU. (Important)	Agree	Agree	Agree	Agree	Agree	Agree
13	Allowing workers to work more than 48 hours a week, even voluntarily, is open to abuse by employers	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Open	Agree	Disagree
14	EU countries will have to make much greater use of nuclear power if we are to significantly reduce carbon emissions. (Important)	Agree	Agree	Disagree	Agree	Disagree	Disagree
15	EU Member States must not be allowed to meet their carbon reduction goals by buying reductions from other countries.	Open	Disagree	Agree	Agree	Agree	Disagree
16	The EU should introduce strict environmental building regulations on all new housing.	Agree	Disagree	Agree	Disagree	Agree	Disagree
17	The greenhouse gas emissions of cattle should be considered in all policies designed to tackle climate change.	Open	Open	Agree	Disagree	Agree	Disagree
18	Half of the members of the European Commission should be women.	Disagree	Open	Open	Open	Agree	Disagree
19	Turkey should be blocked from joining the EU.	Open	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree
20	The President of the European Commission should be elected by the European Parliament.	Agree	Open	Agree	Disagree	Agree	Disagree
21	The credit crunch was caused by over-regulation of the financial sector. (Unimportant)	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree
22	The EU should increase subsidies to poorer regions of the EU.	Agree	Open	Disagree	Agree	Agree	Disagree
23	The UK should join the European single currency (Euro). (Important)	Agree	Agree	Agree	Open	Disagree	Disagree
24	The EU should return control of fisheries to national governments. (Unimportant)	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Agree	Agree
25	The EU should play a greater role in coordinating peacekeeping missions.	Agree	Agree	Agree	Open	Disagree	Agree
26	Extending the period of copyright protection on sound recordings from 50 years will predominantly benefit music companies and work against the interests of consumers. (Unimportant)	Disagree	Disagree	Disagree	Agree	Agree	Disagree
27	The EU and its member states should not cut overseas development aid because of the financial crisis	Open	Agree	Agree	Open	Agree	Agree
28	EU countries must agree standard rules on the recognition of qualifications.	Agree	Disagree	Agree	Agree	Open	Disagree
29	The EU should make it possible for any EU citizen go to any hospital in the EU and have the doctor treating them able to access their health records instantly. (Important)	Agree	Open	Open	Open	Agree	Disagree
30	The EU has too many restrictions on imports.	Disagree	Disagree	Open	Agree	Disagree	Agree
Total Score:			48/64	44/64	42/64	40/64	29/64

It worries me that the European elections are given such little focus in the UK, and that so much apathy is shown towards them. Regardless of our beliefs in parties of this country, these MEPs are representing us on a continental scale... and affecting the very future of Europe as we know it... to this apathy is simply not a viable option. A decision is demanded of you as both a citizen of the UK and of Europe.

Incorruptibles Pt 2

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 21:00:00 +0000

Following recent database pagefile corruption, I thought it important to log the recovery methods. When accessing the wiki dabase, I was receiving a message detailing that the SQL connection had "gone away". On further investigation I determined that the MySQL server was running, but every time access of the database was attempted, it would terminate and reload... sort of a protection mechanism.

On investigation of the logfile I discovered:

InnoDB: Database page corruption on disk or a failed file read of page 1414.
InnoDB: You may have to recover from a backup.
090402 18:29:27  InnoDB: Page dump in ascii and hex (16384 bytes): (ascii/checksum/location of corruption data snipped)
InnoDB: Page may be an update undo log page
InnoDB: Page may be an index page where index id is 0 77
InnoDB: (index keyname of table ufblue_wikidb/objectcache)
InnoDB: You may have to recover from a backup.
InnoDB: It is also possible that your operating system has corrupted its own file cache and rebooting your computer removes the error.
InnoDB: If the corrupt page is an index page you can also try to fix the corruption by dumping, dropping, and reimporting the corrupt table.
InnoDB: You can use CHECK TABLE to scan your table for corruption.

Luckily, the corruption was stored in the objectcache table, which simply stores frequently used data for quick retrieval, but as with most caches, the data is dual sighted, so if it cannot be found in the cache, it is simply accessed from the main store. It brings to light a secondary usage for wiki caches; frequently accessed data is at most risk from corruption, so by using a cache, it is essentially acting as an internal backup, helping to prevent repetitive access to the main store compromising data integrity!

Accessing SQL in CLI form was something I was fairly unfamiliar with. Its interesting how heavily we rely on interfaces such as phpMyAdmin to perform even the most simple tasks. Fortunately for me, I found a well written MySQL Commands page, which allowed me to connect to MySQL by simply running mysql from the command line with a user and password flag. I was then able to run the command use databasename; to switch focus.

The next challenge was actually accessing the database. In its present state, no access whatsoever could me made, it would crash out on any attempt. To correct this I had to start MySQL in recovery mode. I found detail on this mode from a blog entitled MySQL Performance Blog This mode essentially opens the databases in a safe mode preventing background operations from running. The mode is enabled by simply adding innodb_force_recovery=1 to the config file (usually my.cnf) and restarting MySQL.

This allows for accessing the data in a read only mode. That way I was able to make a connection. Once in, I simply pulled a table list by running show tables and then began extracting the tables one at a time. To do this I used the following command:

mysqldump -c -u username -ppassword databasename tablename > /tmp/databasename.tablename.sql

Then once I had the entire DB extracted, I created an empty database and began restoring the tables with:

mysql -u username -ppassword databasename < /tmp/databasename.sql

Once I had restored the tables I ran a check table command on each to check integrity, but as no corruption was found it was most probably index corruption. Needless to say, as I am reporting from a full and operative wiki, the DB was completely restored.

Incorruptibles

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 20:29:00 +0000

Earlier this week, the entire UnifiedBlue wiki went offline for a period of 24 hours or so. The reason? It would seem a failed network card (according to iWeb anyway). Although the network card itself was replaced within hours, as it took the system offline it seemed to cause HDD damage, and as such, my InnoDB suffered some page damage to one of the tables. Fortunately, the damaged table was only a cache table, but the whole saga taught me two important lessons.

The first was that I was neglecting to keep a current backup. I considered various ways to do this. Server side was one option, which involves having a secondary HDD installed in the server and having it automatically backup to that drive. It's an expensive route, but less consuming bandwidth wise. The other option was an online backup service such as DropBox. I've been meaning to give DB a try since reading a tutorial on being able to install the client text only. DB is a great bandwidth-saving zero cost option, but requires a lot of maintenance and is currently lacking in certain features.

The third option, and the one I decided to go for was the good old school method of regular downloads through phpMyAdmin. Using a secure HTTPS connection I am able to just log in monthly and download a copy, saving it to my DropBox location. Although its not the most practical, its probably the easiest option right now!

Recovering from the actual corruption was interesting, and I've detailed it on UFB here. For a good couple of hours I thought that I had possibly lost the entire thing, which was not a nice thought at all... at least its prompted me into action.

Troubling Comms

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 19:00:00 +0000

So it turns out that BT Group (BT.A) are having some "issues" right now. I can't really see why it is particularly suffering, but its already at around -17% on purchase... and Verizon (VZ) is also running -15%, so all in all my safe comms shares are preforming pretty badly for me. I am however going to stick to my original 11th March plan for a sale decision on both of these. I'm just hoping right now that its not a flawed decision!

The dollar verses the pound is running at 1.431, so in effect hovering at just above purchase... financially speaking I just seem to be going nowhere at the moment and I am already looking forward to being free of my comms shares.

I'm thinking of being a little risky and investing in some tech shares. Specifically I'm looking at Red Hat (RHT), which is 36% down on 6m. Its currently running at 14.21 but has been running as high as 24.84 on the year. It also carries a 34.96 P/E, so as a medium to long term investment it looks pretty tasty. Figures aside though I like Red Hat; I admire their commitment to open source and their market share is still strong; with Apache based servers running 50% of the Internet according to January's NetCraft Survey. My concern is that Apache used to hold a more dominant position; at the end of 2005, it held about 75% compared with Microsoft's 25%, but since then MS has put a great deal of work into its IIS offering and as a result has climbed to about a 50% share.

You could perhaps tie this into the more commercial nature of the Red Hat corporation since the 90s, when they were considered more of an "open source" company. Since then Red Hat has now gone "Enterprise" and the opportunity to support larger organisations has been harnessed. This extended support provision is something that can only attract larger enterprises and pull them away from expiring offerings such as Novell or over priced, licensed burdened, closed source offerings such as IIS.

I would certainly support this share as part of a medium to long term investment, with a 2 year maximum review, as I see Red Hat stock gaining some serious stock, with both the server software and support aspects of its offering only contributing to that success.

An interesting comm share right now, should anyone wish to enter what seems to be a pretty erratic sector, would be Level 3 Communications (LVLT). Currently running at 0.738, they've been all over the place this year, with a high of 4.48 and a low of 0.57. Level 3 are a backbone provider operating out of Colorado, and seem to have a pretty sensible business model, exploring merger and acquisition opportunities last year and cutting back staff early December.

My only concern with them is a class action suit filed against them for an alleged 2007 securities laws violation which has to do with its quarter reporting, press releases and general PR which artificially impacted the stocks value. The bottom line is that this class action has not had a direct impact on the price yet, which worries me because it will hit as the class action gains momentum and coverage. In my opinion, Level 3 are certainly more of a risk than Red Hat, but have more earning potential if the suit action is managed badly or turns out to be unfounded.

Just out of interest, here is a 52 performance index of the companies we've been talking about today (Verizon, AT&T, Level 3 and Red Hat). Although Red Hat really isn't in the comms sector, the data from a "where next" angle is still useful.

Securing the Wiki

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 19:20:00 +0000

For some time now I've been searching for a more secure access method for my personal wiki UFBlue.

Until recently I've been limited to some pretty old-school methods of authentication; however I've discovered that with an extension, openID authentication can be added to the wiki, which supports token authentication. I'll keep you posted.

Hedging my Bets

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 17:32:00 +0000

ISA: As detailed earlier, I will be storing any GBP in a UK ISA. This will happen unless the dollar weakens to a minimum of 1.65 against the pound, in which case I will transfer funds across to the US. I already have a NatWest ISA, which receives 3.25% AER. I had considered Egg ISA however the rate is only 3.05% AER.

US Holdings: Currently only Verizon (VZ). Verizon has been struggling recently with only 0.87% movement in the last 3 months. If it has not made significant progress (at least 5% on purchase) by 11 March, then I will drop.

UK Holdings: Currently only BT Group (BT.A). BT have been performing poorly over the last 3 months with -4.36% movement. Again, if BT have not made significant progrss (at least 5% on purchase) by 11 March, I will drop.

Funds from dropped US holdings will return to PayPal MM, UK holdings will be reinvested in the fund market.

UK Fund Market: Over my cash ISA allowance, I will be investing into the UK fund market. I will decide which fund by 11 March.

Account Closures: I will close Citi GBP Savings, USD Current and USD Savings.

Deep Impact

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 22:58:00 +0000

Following from my last post on decision, I have a pretty major one to make; the decision of how the GBP will weather the new economy. I say new economy in an optimistic, forward thinking way... just because an economy is struggling, it does not mean that is necessarily "bad"... it just means that it has to be tackled in a different way.

After reading different articles on the destination of the pound, I am estimating that we will reach parity with the dollar by the end of the year. As such I will be transferring as much liquidity to US dollars as soon as possible, including ISA holdings irrespective of the ISA allowances for this and next financial.

I will use E*TRADE to invest 50% of my liquidity into a suitable fund, which I will decide on by the end of the month. I will keep the reminder in my low interest bearing PayPal account (0.59% yield, 0.59% AER with below formula). This will come at a high price, especially when compared with ISA tax free earning potential of 3.25% AER. If saving $10,000 for the full year, I would receive:

PayPal Money Market: $59
Tax Free ISA: $325

It would in effect be costing a total of $266 to hold my funds elsewhere, or the equivalent of 2.66% of my savings. Of course, this is negating the movement of the pound, would according to my estimates will be multiples of that figure.

Incidentally, the transferrance of funds across borders also comes at a high price. To give you an idea, right now the spread is as follows:

GBP to USD
Trade Rate: 0.703584 GBP Inverse: 1.42129 USD
Mid Market Rate: 0.686632 GBP Inverse: 1.45638 USD

USD to GBP
Trade Rate: 1.49330 USD Inverse: 0.669658 USD
Mid Market Rate: 1.45639 USD Inverse: 0.686629 GBP

To put that into a tangible sum, transferring 10,000 GBP to USD:

Trade Rate: $14212.90
Mid Market Rate: $14563.80

Bring the difference to $350.90 or 240.94 GBP. To put that into super-human-readable format, it means that a one way cross border transaction UK -> US would at this time cost 2.41%. So this decision cannot be taken lightly, at a sum cost of 5.07% (even before fund interest is potentially added to an investment ISA).

The question therefore is whether the pound will continue its trend of sliding against the dollar, or whether the dollar will weaken as the full force of the economic situation becomes apparent in the States. As stated earlier, I am certain it will be the former, and am accordingly willing to risk the 5.07% for the greater potential.

I will close my USD savings account here in the UK, along with my superflious USD current and GBP savings accounts. I will keep my NatWest current, savings (for short term hold), and ISA (for medium term hold).

AER to Gross: 12*((1+AER)^(1/12)-1), so for 5% interest rate you would: 12*((1+0.05)^(1/12)-1) = 4.89% gross
Gross to AER: ((1+gross_interest/12)^12)-1, so for 5% gross interest rate you would: ((1+0.05/12)^12)-1 = 5.12% AER

Let it Be

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 22:48:00 +0000

So here's the deal:

"Decide like a man of action; implement like a man of thought. It does not take much strength to decide what to do, but it requires great strength to do things."

I guess when it comes to personal decision making, I'm not too strong. For some reason I can make work-based decisions instantly, without pause, and not look back. So the simple question therefore is... why is this different outside the office? What happens when the suit comes off to turn me in to my father?

I've had real problems deciding what to do for Easter. After all, I leave a lean and mean life, so giving up luxury is not something that would fly with any degree of sacrifice. My decision therefore is to give up indecision for Easter. To not only make decisions immediately, but to act without hesitation. I feel that these people are the successful people in life... and I will fall into that category.

So starting as I mean to go on, I feel it apt to make some pending decisions, which I will do over the next couple of posts. Its a brave world, one where there is no looking back. Onwards and upwards and all that jazz. Let it Be.

"It's in your moments of decision that your destiny is shaped."

Preservation: The Baby, The Green Back or the Yellow Belly?

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 20:04:00 +0000

In today's climate we are all looking for one thing; preservation. That's right, forget making money, most of us are just looking for a way to make sure that our money doesn't slide out from beneath us in this economically destabilizing world.

Earlier this year, I had most of my funds tied up in dollar markets, and I worked hard to liquidize my funds and on on September 1st, moved the bulk of them from dollars to pound sterling at a rate of 1.845. I figured at that stage that I had done pretty well; I had transferred these funds across at rates of 0.5ish, and I figured that the dollar would decline against the pound and I would be able to repatriate (so to speak) my assets in the near future. As far as I was concerned, I was in a win-win situation.

But for some reason the dollar or the pound would just not follow my plan. The dollar remained strong (for different reasons that I've yet to blog on) while the pound slumped to record lows through Q2. Today the tradeable rate sits at 1.465 which would mean that a reconversion would cost me a considerable 1400GBP per $10,000. Ouch; the harsh reality of a 20% drop. The only good news here is that it's only slightly below my initial trading rate for the mostpart.

So perhaps chasing the dollar shouldn't be high on my priority list. With many forecasting sterling's parity with the euro in 2009 and gold's current recovery... is it time to explore one of those options? Also the possibility of "sitting tight" and just riding this out even seems viable at the moment. Comments, as always, are welcome!

Don't Be* There

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 13:45:00 +0000

On December 7th, this article was posted on Slashdot. It seems that various UK ISPs who were subscribed to the IWF (Internet Watch Foundation) had blocked access to a certain page on Wikipedia. The page, the entry for the Scorpions' "Virgin Killer" album contained an image of a pre-pubescent girl and the IWF contacted the UK member ISPs and asked for the content to be censored.

There are so many issues with this that I find it hard to start in a coherent place. My ISP, Be*, is apparently a member of the IWF. I say apparently because it was not advertised or even disclosed by Be* in the small print. You would have thought that being a member of such an influencing government funded body would have been of relevance to members. Apparently not.

My next issue is the censorship itself. Obviously this is a much larger issue than one supposedly indecent image, but when did we as a country or as the Internet start to decide what was acceptable, and what was not? This is an incredibly slippery slope which has huge global ramifications.

Next seems to be the way in which the content was censored. Turns out that all customers were routed through something called a transparent proxy. To cut through the techno babble on this one, it simply meant that as far as Wikipedia was concerned, everyone was accessing the Internet from the same Internet address. Because of this, Wikipedia had to stop anonamous posting (because it could no longer be tracked) and new registrations for the same reason.

Then came the issue of the resulting message to customers which has been termed security through obscurity. The message was delivered in the form of a 404 message to customers. This would normally indicate that the page did not exist... which of course it did. Instead of at very least including information on the block and the reasons behind it, it was actually a completely fraudulent message... in effect a lie.

Onwards to the final insult, the fact that Be* did not communicate this issue to members in any official way. Random posts and ticket responses were included in the forums, but their response to this large-scale invasion of Internet user's rights went unmentioned.

Then yesterday afternoon, Slashdot reported on the IWF backing down on the issue. Apparently the IWF credited the Streisand effect for "opening their eyes". (The Steisand effect in a nutshell is when censored information is made super public, backfiring completely on the original censor.)

Their release stated that:

"...in light of the length of time the image has existed and its wide availability, the decision has been taken to remove this webpage from our list. Any further reported instances of this image which are hosted abroad, will not be added to the list. ... IWF's overriding objective is to minimize the availability of indecent images of children on the internet, however, on this occasion our efforts have had the opposite effect."

This of course does not negate the situation in any way. Indeed both the IWF and member ISPs will be left with very damaged reputations. This is extremely damaging for Be* becauase as many members point out, Be* is a ISP widely used by technical professionals, and it has failed to act in a communicative, fairhanded, neutral and frankly professional manner.

Be* users can review the pertenant discussion thread on the Be* member forums here.

Krugman's New Depression

luke.us@gmail.com (Luke O'Connell) — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 22:02:00 +0000

I've just been reading an interesting article by Paul Krugman regarding the New Depression and thought I would share a condensed version.

He starts by looking at the deflation of the housing market in autumn 2005, and the late realisation of this in the spring of 2006. It seems that although house values were deteriorating and sales were falling, actual prices were not.

Of course this is fairly damaging, because as soon as home owners find themselves in a negative equity situation, creditors feel the pressure. Foreclosures are a poor conduit of debt recovery.

He then talks on why the creditors don't help out the home owners by relaxing payment plans or "restructuring" their debt. It becomes apparent that this debt is actually sold on and divided up between investors and other parties of something known as a shadow banking system. These mangled debts are branded collateralised debt obligations or CDOs, the management of which falls down to loan servicers who have little interest or resources to enable debt restructuring.

In essense by this stage, securities backed by sub-prime mortgages became a bad investment. By Febuary 2007, it was realised that shares in CDOs were going to take a serious hit... in fact by the end of 2007, it was generally decided that anything to do with the housing marked was pretty dangerous.

It turns out that the dessolation of the housing market saw $8 trillion in losses, $7 trill of which were felt by home owners, $1 trill of which by investors. You would have naturally thought the knock on effect to home owners would be the worst felt, however that $1 trill loss to investors actually triggered the colapse of the shadow banking system.

In a nutshell, the shadow banking system has become very popular due to high interest rates and low borrowing rates... but at a cost of deregulation and lack of Federal assurance. The SBS could do this because it did not require the level of liquidity that the banking system mandated.

So what happened? Well simply put, people panicked and started to try and repay debts by selling assets. In essence, it became a run on the banks similar to those of the 30s, with the exception that this was a run of mouse clicks... but just as damaging.

US investment banks started falling and the Fed tried to help by lowering interest rates, but this was only felt by business and individuals with top credit ratings... those with poor ratings were still being charged higher rates, so the cuts were not felt as widely as the Fed had hoped.

Of course the other danger of the SBS was that the Fed seemed powerless to help; pouring money into the banking system generally did nothing to quell the pain perpretrated by the SBS. It was decided then, that the way to help the shadow banking system was to invest in investment banks, money market funds and even non-financials.

See, helping the banking system encompassing just $800bn was a pretty easy task... but of course the SBS was playing with around $50 trill of credit, so any rescue package would just be a drop in the ocean.

Now we talk about decoupling. Krugman talks about the way our global ecomomy is, on paper, able to decouple itself from the US and Europe when needed, therefore warding against a global recession. The problem with decoupling seems to be twofold. Firstly, emerging markets were heavily investing in the US as a means of stability; secondly US and global investment banks were taking part in a mechanism know as the carry trade. Simply put, an entity borrows from an economy with low interest rates, and lends to economies with high rates. When it works... it works well. The only backlash being of course, that global economies are therefore very much intertwined as a result.

The core issue along with the aforementioned is the lack of demand as the result of financial insecurity coupled with bloated production capacity. A bad combination indeed. Simply put, private spending is drying up.

So what is the solution? Recapitalisation, some of which is already taking place in the form of the Fed's $700bn bailout package, but Krugman believes that this is too little, and that a broader recapitalisation is required, and maybe even deeper nationalisation of key financial entities and processes.

He concludes by talking about the apparent need for deeper and deeper regulation to these entities, processes and systems once recovered to prevent reoccurance. These safeguards were already put in place in the aftermath of the Great Depression, but it seems that as the Great Depression became that of fairy tales... people became more comfortable with the idea of an indestructable, infallable financial system and became lax, dangerously opportunistic and more demanding of what is in reality, a very fragile system.

Krugman's article made for some interesting reading not only because it explored the past, present and future of the current crisis, but because it went some way into understanding why the "infection" so to speak was able to masasticise so quickly throughout the financial systems of the world both developing and developed.

He concludes that the real danger here is not lack of resources or even virtue, but of understanding.